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By Center for Macroeconomic Research o

As the slow exterior industry call for and extra household funding in earlier years have triggered extra construction ability, leading to either commercial development price and GDP progress price falling to lowest element for the final 3 years in China. the place might China’s financial system move? China’s Macroeconomic Outlook, September 2013 offers a few insights into the main points of the commercial improvement in China, and likewise comprises sequence of simulations of the effect of reducing govt profit at the monetary functionality. The study means that China should still minimize its executive profit percentage in GDP to advertise its structural adjustment.

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Additional info for China's Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, August 2013

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Meanwhile, investment is still the mainspring of economic growth, especially taking account of the unbalanced economic structure. 38 %. It is not the best choice to drive growth through investment, but China has no choice except expanding investment, to prevent economy from falling. 3. Growth of government expenditure on people’s wellbeing declined more rapidly than that on public administration, given slowing government revenue growth caused by underperformance of manufacturing. Declining in growth of fiscal expenditure as well as residences’ real income will hamper the reforms of economic structure and rebalance of economy.

1. Professor Xu Xianchun, Vice director of National Bureau of Statistics of China There are five characteristics of current economic situation: Firstly, China’s economy is experiencing steady growth at present. 9 % for the last five quarters, which shows the relatively steady growth tendency; gross fixed capital formation develops in a stable way, industrial added value also experiences a steady growth, residents’ consumption slipped slightly; the contribution net exports makes to economic growth has switched to be positive this year rather than negative last year.

9). 14 Fig. 4 Forecast of the Growth Rate of Government Revenue The government revenue in China will grow at a slowing pace, affected by the underperformance of manufacturing. 09 percentage points less than growth in 2012, and be less than growth of GDP for the first time since 1997. 87 % can be expected. However, despite a slight setback in the first quarter of 2014, the year on year growth rate of government revenue will have an upward tendency in future (Fig. 10). 54 Fig. 10 Forecast of government revenue growth rate (on year-on-year basis) To conclude, the research team suggests as follows.

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